Predicting the future of organic wines may seem easy. The number of certified hectares is steadily increasing in Europe. Small wine growers convert, as well as famous Bordeaux chateaux. Consumers increasingly buy organic wines. Bulk prices for organic wine soar. Is there any reason why this should not continue?
There is much to suggest that the organic wine industry will continue to grow.
This is an article in our eight-part series. Here’s the full series of articles on organic, biodynamic, natural and sustainable:
- Organic, biodynamic and sustainable wine, an overview | part 1
- Organic viticulture: What is it really? | part 2
- Organic wine: in the wine cellar | part 3
- Organic certification | part 4
- Biodynamics: What is it really about? | part 5
- Natural wines | part 6
- Sustainable wines | part 7
- The future of organic wines | part 8
- Bonus: Video master class on organic wine
This is a longer version of an article published on Forbes.com.
In 2012, we wrote our book “Biodynamic, Organic and Natural Winemaking”. At that time, the organic vineyard surface in Europe was just over 5%. Now, almost ten years later, it is at 13%. Back then, in 2012, many consumers were sceptical of organic wines. A lot has happened since. Organic wines are now a natural feature in wine shops. Those who do not like a wine no longer think that it is because it is organic, which some people actually thought a few years ago.
Italy is the number one organic wine country in Europa (and the world), with more than 16% of its wine area organically certified or under conversion. France has just over 14%. Gérard Bertrand, one of the major organic producers in Languedoc, believes that 50% of the French vineyards will be organic in 10 years.
Does this seem reasonable?
Admittedly, there is much to suggest that the current pace is maintained. In 2020, organic wine production increased by 22% in France. But there are also some question marks.
Competition from sustainability
Will consumers soon require organic farming for wines? Maybe, but I do not think so. But it is not inconceivable that they will demand some environmental commitment on the part of producers. However, a sustainability certification may be “enough” for them.
The biggest obstacle to organic labelling’s continued progress could very well be sustainability.
Many countries and wine regions are investing heavily in sustainable certifications. There is definitely a risk (or however you choose to see it) that the sustainability labels will take shares from the organic label. Being sustainable is less strict. The producers can continue with synthetic spraying and can improve their way of working at their own pace. But it still shows customers that they have a plan for their environmental work.
So far, however, organic certification has a significant advantage. The green euro leaf has been on wine bottles since 2012 and on organic food even longer. People recognise it. The sustainability labels are not as easily identifiable. Or as easily understood.
In fact, sustainability exists in a variety of versions. There are already many sustainability labels on wine bottles, and plenty more are in the works. The consumer can’t help being confused. The green leaf is more straightforward.
It pays to be organic
Organic farming pays. If we look at bulk sales in France, we see significantly higher prices for organic wines. It is more difficult to compare the prices of bottled wines. But no doubt, today’s consumers are willing to pay more for organic wine.
Therefore, more and more producers are likely to convert for market reasons. There is nothing wrong with becoming organic to satisfy demand. However, the high bulk prices may be due to a shortage of organic wine in some regions, such as Bordeaux. Will prices be kept up if the number of organic wines in the region increases? Maybe, maybe not.
The export market is vital for organic producers, especially in Italy and Spain, which export around 80% of their organic wines.
Weather, climate and spraying
The weather plays a significant role in the lives of all farmers, including winegrowers. So, the weather will have a say in the matter, at least in the short term. If there are several difficult, rainy years in a row with fungal diseases spreading out of control, those considering converting may think again. Those who are under conversion may give up to save their harvest. In wine regions with difficult climates, some growers believe that synthetic spraying is inevitable.
That the climate plays a role is noticeable in France. Warm and sunny Provence has 24% of its vineyard surface in organic farming, the Rhône Valley and Roussillon have 18%. The figures are much lower in the northern and the Atlantic regions. Bordeaux has 9%, Champagne only 3% and Cognac a paltry 1%. But to be fair, all three of these regions are improving steadily. But they are also investing heavily in sustainability labels. What will win in the long run? Organic or sustainability?
The fact that several synthetic products are now banned in some countries or throughout the EU may lead to more producers feeling compelled to engage in organic farming. Glyphosate, for example, the active ingredient in many herbicides, is now allowed in France only in limited quantities. Hennessy Cognac, which produces almost half of all cognac, will demand that its grape suppliers completely abandon synthetic herbicides by 2030.
The rules for how to use synthetic pesticides are becoming stricter. The complaints in France these last few years from people living close to vineyards have led to new regulations concerning spraying.
There are, of course, rules about how much you use of a particular product and how often you spray. You have to take into account the risk that the organism you want to kill becomes resistant. But the rules also monitor how close to a watercourse you can spray, how close to schools, houses, etc.
Everyone sprays with something, though. Organic growers use copper to fight downy mildew, a severe fungal disease in France and many other countries. But copper is also the reason why some growers choose not to become organic. They prefer to use a (sometimes degradable) synthetic product rather than copper that remains in the soil. However, how dangerous copper is is very much under debate. The soil can process and neutralise a certain amount.
Since 2020, it is permitted to use 4 kilos of copper per year and hectare. This applies to organic and conventional growers (who also use copper alone or as a complement to synthetic products). Some producers are worried that 4 kilos may be too little some years. But if you give up and resort to a synthetic product to save your harvest in a difficult year, you will lose your organic certification.
Biocontrol
Organic farming is based on giving up all synthetic pesticides, herbicides and fertilizers. Thus, effective methods are needed to protect the crop with other means. Copper and sulphur have been used since downy and powdery mildew was first discovered in Europe in the 19th century.
Infusions, decoctions of plants, herbal teas and such are used, of course, but with limited success. But more and more natural products, so-called biocontrol, are now being introduced. These are often based on microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses and fungi. Organic growers are allowed to use many (but not all) of them.
If these natural products prove effective, more wine producers may switch to organic. The pests and the diseases will not go away. Good alternatives for synthetic products are needed.
A future without spraying?
You cannot totally get rid of spraying. But the spraying can be limited and maybe even more so in the future. The new fungus-resistant grapes (sometimes called PIWI, an abbreviation of the German Pilzwiderständige, “fungus-resistant”) are hybrids but with a high percentage of Vitis vinifera in them. This means that they not only have good resistance to certain diseases, they also taste good.
In Sweden, England, Canada and some other distinctly cool climate regions, they are already well established. Also, Germany and Switzerland use them. But if producers and consumers in the classic wine regions of France will accept these new grape varieties, it remains to be seen. Maybe eventually, they will have to. But we’re not there yet. At present, these grapes are not allowed in French appellation wines. But it’s only a matter of time.
Regions where the name of the grape plays less of a role lead the way. The Cognac region expects to use resistant grape varieties on a large scale in 2030, with a sharp reduction in spraying as a result. Languedoc is taking tentative steps.
Future challenges
Even though an ever-increasing stream of biocontrol products appears on the market, one may wonder whether the organic growers will be able to cope with the extreme weather we now see more often?
The organic movement started as a reaction to much more dangerous synthetic products than most of the ones used today. Should organic farming be a bit flexible today? Should the organic growers get an exemption from time to time and be allowed to use a more efficient, synthetic product? Of course, not everyone will want to. But for some, it could be a way to avoid losing the entire harvest to severe fungal attacks but still not lose the organic label (and perhaps thus customers).
But there is a risk that this will erode the whole idea of organic farming and that it will lose the customers’ trust. At the same time, it is not uncommon for consumers to believe that organic growers do not spray at all and they are appalled when they learn that they spray with copper. This is complicated by the fact that there is no straightforward answer to the question of how dangerous copper really is. But no plant protection today is entirely harmless. What is harmless is not efficient enough.
You simply have to choose.
