The international trade in wine grew a lot in the first half of 2021, the latest numbers from the OIV reveal. This was expected, considering the difficulties of world trade in 2020. But even compared to pre-covid 2019, world trade in wine increased. The details of wine export and import numbers also show that politics is having a significant impact on the wine trade, in particular Chinese actions and Brexit.
If 2021 was very difficult for wine production (see our recent report on 2021 wine production here), the situation is quite different for the world trade in wine. The very first numbers on international trade are rosy, released recently by the OIV (International Organisation of Vine and Wine).
The international trade in wine, measured in value, in the first semester of 2021 increased by an impressive 21% compared to the year before, 2020. However, this number can be a bit misleading, since in 2020, the first year of covid, international trade in general, and in wine in particular, was depressed due to the world crisis.
This is a longer version of an article published on Forbes.com.
Instead, comparing to the last “normal” year, 2019, may make more sense. The growth in 2021 compared to 2019 is still good, up 6%, although not quite as much. (Comparing to the same period in 2019.)
The big driver is trade in sparkling wine: it was up a whopping 26% compared to 2020, and up 12% compared to 2019. Exactly what has driven this growth is hard to say, especially without having the volume numbers. Maybe we are celebrating in early 2021 that the pandemic seems to recede? Or are we compensating the sad state of the world with an extra glass of bubbly? And perhaps it is due to big price increases on champagne, the wine that dominates the segment?
Bottled wine value increased by 12% compared to 2020 and was +22% (!) compared to 2019.
One curious thing: the increase is greatest for sparkling wine compared to 2021, which is as expected, but for still wine in bottle, the increase is bigger compared to 2019. Why?
Bag-in-box trade in 2021 increased by 9% compared to 2020 and compared to 2019 with 10%.
Bulk wine is the odd man out. The value of trade in bulk wine fell in 2021 by 1% compared to 2020, and the same number (-1%) compared to 2019.
Country-by-country numbers show some interesting changes too.
Imports
The top twelve importers, in value, in the first semester of 2021:
- USA: -1% compared to 2019
- UK: -6%
- Germany: +7%
- Canada: +7%
- Netherlands: +25%
- China: -38%
- Japan: -13%
- Switzerland: +16%
- Belgium: +27%
- Hong Kong: +10%
- Russia: +11%
- Denmark: +21%
Quite astonishing increases in some countries. If this is a longer-term change or if it is a question of “catching up” after 2020 remains to be seen.
China imports dropped considerably, continuing the trend of China’s diminishing role.
We saw particularly big increases in Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Hong Kong, and Denmark.
Exports
The top twelve exporters, in value, in the first semester of 2021:
- France: +11% compared to 2019
- Italy: +11%
- Spain: +8%
- Chile: -6%
- Australia: -27%
- USA: -4%
- New Zealand: -10%
- Germany: -6%
- Portugal: +20%
- Argentina: +2%
- UK: -23%
- South Africa: +5%
Australia’s exports dropped significantly, which is, no doubt, due to the trade barriers put up by China.
It is perhaps surprising that we also see a drop in Chilean exports. Chile is a preferred trading partner for China, and one could have expected that China would have replaced Australian wine with Chilean wine, but apparently not, or at least not much. Maybe it reflects the downturn in wine consumption in China.
A significant drop was also seen (compared to 2019) in the UK exports. UK wine export may sound curious, it is not a big wine producer, but this is mainly a question of re-exports since the UK is a trading hub for wine.
At the same time, we see increasing imports to the Netherlands, Switzerland and Hong Kong, also important trading places for wine. This seems to be a clear signal that Brexit is having a significant effect on the world wine trade, with wine trade moving away from the UK to other countries.
Remember that these are numbers only for the first semester of 2021 and that import/export numbers are compared to 2019. And that it is measured in value.
What about comparing import/export to 2020?
Compared to 2020, instead of 2019 as in the numbers above, almost all changes are positive. Imports as well as exports grew for most countries compared to 2020.
There are a few notable exceptions that rhyme with the comments I made above.
Imports:
Imports to China shrunk in 2021 also compared to 2020, but not as much as compared to 2019. China seems clearly to be pulling back on wine.
Imports to Japan also declined in 2021 compared to 2020 (but less than compared to 2019). I see no obvious explanation for why wine imports to Japan are shrinking. Do you? Write a comment if you have some ideas.
Exports:
Comparing with pre-covid 2019, six countries saw shrinking exports in 2021: Chile, Australia, USA, New Zealand, Germany, and the UK. Comparing to 2020 (first half) instead, when exports were very restricted, one would expect more positive numbers, which is the case, but two countries actually saw a drop in exports in 2021 even in that comparison: Australia and New Zealand.
Australia saw a big drop in exports in 2021 compared to 2020, almost as big a drop as if you compare it with pre-covid 2019. No doubt an effect of the trade barriers put up by China against Australia.
The other country that also decreased its exports in 2021 compared to 2020 was New Zealand. Any suggestion as to why?
It will be interesting to see the full-year figures when they arrive in a few months’ time.
All data from the OIV.
