In 2020 the global trade in wine seems to have more or less stagnated. And prices fell. This is of course to a very large extent numbers that are affected by the first year of the pandemic. But looking at the details shows some interesting and surprising facts. Italy is the world’s largest wine exporter, counted in volume, followed closely by Spain and quite a way behind by France. Looking at the value of exports, France shoots up to a very comfortable lead as the by far biggest exporter. Joins us in a closer look at the numbers of global wine trade in 2020. This is the latest of our series of articles analysing the global data on wine published by the International Organisation of Vine and Vine (OIV).
The world trade in wine shrunk slightly in volume in 2020 to 105.8 Mhl, -1.7%. However, measured in value the drop was bigger, total wine exports reached 29.6 billion euro, -6.7%. In other words, global trade was almost stable (in volume) but the average prices fell.
This is a longer version of an article published on Forbes.com.
As the OIV notes in its publication, there are several obvious factors contributing to this unimpressive performance: the covid-19 crisis that had a particularly negative effect on some big exporters (South Africa trade ban for example), the trade war between the EU and the USA that led to American tariffs on wine, Chinese tariffs on Australian wine, and the dampening effect on trade of the Brexit mistake.
If the trends we see here are a temporary effect of the first very difficult year of covid, or if they are more persistent, will be easier to see when we get the numbers for 2021.
Read all our articles in the Wine Global 2020 series here:
- Global wine production 2020
- The World’s vineyard surface 2020
- How important is wine production to a country?
- The world’s most productive wine producing countries
- World wine consumption in 2020
- Wine consumption per person in 2020
- World wine exports in 2020
- World wine imports in 2020
- Wine exports compared to total production (dependency on exports)
- Wine exports compared to GDP and to total exports
- Average price per litre on export, by country
- Exports in bottle, sparkling, bag-in-box, bulk in 2020
Export volumes: falling slightly; Italy, Spain, France top
The biggest wine exporting countries, measured in volume, million hectolitres, are:
- Italy: 20.8 Mhl
- Spain: 20.2 Mhl
- France: 13.6 Mhl
- Chile: 8.5 Mhl
- Australia: 7.5 Mhl
- Argentina: 4.0 Mhl
- USA: 3.6 Mhl
- South Africa: 3.6 Mhl
- Germany: 3.4 Mhl
- Portugal: 3.1 Mhl
- New Zealand: 2.9 Mhl
Countries with export volumes equal to or above 2 Mhl in 2020.
In 2019 Italy and Spain were on par, sharing first position as biggest exporters. In 2020, both countries decreased their exports but Spain decreased more than Italy.
The three biggest wine exporters, Italy, Spain, France, the same as the three biggest producers but in different order (Italy, France, Spain), account for a little bit more than 50% of world exports.
China out, New Zealand in
If we compare this ranking with the one for wine production, it is interesting to note that one of the top ten producers is not big a big enough exporter to be on this list: China. Instead, we have New Zealand appearing in place number 10. More on this later.
Big exporters fall in volume; Argentina skyrockets
The four biggest exporters, Italy, Spain, France, and Chile, all saw falling exports in volume.
Only one country saw a significant rise in exports: Argentina with +27% to reach 4 Mhl.
Two other countries also made good gains, Portugal and New Zealand, with +5.3% and +6% respectively, but this could not compensate for the falls in the bigger countries.
Wine exports evolution 2019-2020, in volume, million hectolitres (Mhl):
| # vol | # val | Volume 2020 Mhl | Volume 2019 Mhl | Chg volume 20/19, % | Chg volume 20/19 Mhl | Of world total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Italy | 20.8 | 21.4 | -2.4% | -0.6 | 20% |
| 2 | 3 | Spain | 20.2 | 21.4 | -5.9% | -1.2 | 19% |
| 3 | 1 | France | 13.6 | 14.3 | -4.9% | -0.7 | 13% |
| 4 | 5 | Chile | 8.5 | 8.7 | -2.2% | -0.2 | 8% |
| 5 | 4 | Australia | 7.5 | 7.4 | 0.5% | 0.1 | 7% |
| 6 | 10 | Argentina | 4.0 | 3.1 | 27.0% | 0.9 | 4% |
| 7 | 6 | USA | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8% | 0.0 | 3% |
| 8 | 11 | South Africa | 3.6 | 4.1 | -11.9% | -0.5 | 3% |
| 9 | 8 | Germany | 3.4 | 3.8 | -10.3% | -0.4 | 3% |
| 10 | 9 | Portugal | 3.1 | 3.0 | 5.3% | 0.1 | 3% |
| 11 | 7 | New Zealand | 2.9 | 2.7 | 6.0% | 0.2 | 3% |
| Other | 14.6 | 14% | |||||
| Total | 105.8 | 100% |
Countries with export volumes equal to or above 2 Mhl in 2020.
# vol = country rank in volume in 2020, # val = country rank in value in 2020
Export values, falling even more; France, Italy, Spain on top
The value of exports fell much more, -6.7% to reach only 29.6 billion euro. The OIV speculates that this is in parts due to the closure of restaurants and bars in some countries. But is it really so that we drink more exclusive wines in when we go out for a drink or for a bite (to restaurants, bars etc) than what we do at home? And is the horeca channel so big that it would have an impact?
Another possible explanation is that the crisis may have meant (still means?) that we were more cautious with expenses and chose to go for cheaper wines. What do you think?
The biggest exporters counted in value, million euros:
- France: 8,736 M eur
- Italy: 6,233 M eur
- Spain: 2,626 M eur
- Australia: 1,787 M eur
- Chile: 1,595 M eur
- USA: 1,147 M eur
- New Zealand: 1,145 M eur
- Germany: 882 M eur
- Portugal: 846 M eur
- Argentina: 655 M eur
- South Africa: 535 M eur
Countries with export volumes equal to or above 2 Mhl in 2020.
Unsurprisingly, France moves up to the top spot when it comes to value of the wine exports.
All countries, except two, saw a drop in total export value. The two exceptions that grew are Portugal and New Zealand, which are the two smallest exporters on the list counted in volume.
French gains thanks to high-value wines, but champagne drops
The biggest exporter, counted in value, is France. The value of French exports are more than 40% (!) higher than the number two on the list, Italy, although Italy exports bigger volumes. Italy’s export volume is 53% higher than France. This is, of course, due to the fact that France exports much “premium” wines, most importantly large volumes of high-priced champagne. However, champagne exports saw an important drop, more than other categories, in 2020 which is also reflected in these numbers.
In 2019 the French export value was more than 50% ahead of Italy. In 2020, “only” 40% ahead of Italy. France is also the country that has seen the second biggest drop in export values, -10.8%. In fact, French exports dropped with over one billion euro.
The biggest loser in terms of export value is (relatively speaking), however, Germany that shrunk with -15.5% in value. I see no obvious explanation for that. Do you?
Wine exports evolution 2019-2020, in value, million euro (M eur)
| # vol | # val | Value 2020 M eur | Value 2019 M eur | Chg value % | Chg value M eur | Of world | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | France | 8,736 | 9794 | -10.8% | -1058 | 30% |
| 1 | 2 | Italy | 6,233 | 6387 | -2.4% | -154 | 21% |
| 2 | 3 | Spain | 2,626 | 2718 | -3.4% | -92 | 9% |
| 5 | 4 | Australia | 1,787 | 1829 | -2.3% | -42 | 6% |
| 4 | 5 | Chile | 1,595 | 1716 | -7.1% | -121 | 5% |
| 7 | 6 | USA | 1,147 | 1254 | -8.5% | -107 | 4% |
| 11 | 7 | New Zealand | 1,145 | 1096 | 4.5% | 49 | 4% |
| 9 | 8 | Germany | 882 | 1044 | -15.5% | -162 | 3% |
| 10 | 9 | Portugal | 846 | 819 | 3.3% | 27 | 3% |
| 6 | 10 | Argentina | 655 | 682 | -4.0% | -27 | 2% |
| 8 | 11 | South Africa | 535 | 590 | -9.3% | -55 | 2% |
| Other | 3,413 | 12% | |||||
| Total | 29,600 | 100% |
Countries with export volumes equal to or above 2 Mhl in 2020.
# vol = country rank in volume in 2020, # val = country rank in value in 2020
The big three wine exporters, Italy, France, Spain: more than half of total trade
France alone accounts for almost 30% of all the worlds wine exports counted in value.
France together with Italy capture 50% of world export value.
The three biggest exporters — Italy, France, Spain — account for 52% of world exports in volume and 59% in value. But all three saw drops in both volume and value.
The internationalisation / globalisation of wine trade pauses?
Over twenty years the wine market has become very much more international. International trade in wine (exports) has almost doubled. In 2000, 60 M hl wine was exported. Today, almost 110 M hl is drunk in another country.
The total exports were 105.8 Mhl in 2020 and the total production was 260 Mhl. In other words, 41% of the world’s wine is drunk in another country than where it was made.
But a perhaps fairer comparison is to look at total exports compared to consumption, since some of the wine production is used for other purposes. This is exactly what the OIV does in their “wine market internationalisation index”: the ratio between the volumes of world wine exports and world wine consumption. This gives an even more impressive figure, 45% of all wine consumed comes from a foreign country. Almost half of all wine drunk has been exported.
But in 2020 this number was just a slight increase from 2019. Is the internationalisation of wine taking a pause?
However, if we look over a longer period of time, the international trade in wine has seen a very impressive evolution. The wine market internationalisation index has grown from 27% in 2000 to 45% in 2020.
The globalisation in wine trade has increased very much over the last few decades. 2020 breaks that trend. Is it a temporary pause? Or will the world trade in wine continue to expand? The next few years will tell.
Source: All data in this article comes from The International Organisation of Vine and Wine, OIV. Analysis and comments are BKWine’s.
